Massachusetts Poll: 78% of voters view transportation system in only ‘fair or poor’ condition; 59% support future MBTA shutdowns to expedite improvements.
Healey, “yes” on Questions 1 and 4 leading as voters begin casting mail ballots.
Despite challenges, two-thirds approve of Baker’s handling of transportation.
Voters have a long transportation to-do list for the next governor of Massachusetts. Improving roads, bridges, and public transit is the top priority, but voters also support major expansions like bringing rail service to Western Massachusetts and reimagining the Commuter Rail network. To pay for it all, voters continue to support Question 1 to tax income over $1 million, but little else. Many want to see the state do more with the money it already has.
Those are some of the key findings of a new survey of 987 likely Massachusetts voters in the November election conducted by The MassINC Polling Group. The poll was sponsored by The Barr Foundation.
Voters prioritize fixing the current transportation system.
Voters were asked to pick 3 transportation priorities for the next governor, and 2 rose to the top: improving highways, roads and bridges (66%), and improving the existing public transportation network (59%). Making roads safer for drivers, bikers, and pedestrians (39%) came in third.
One reason voters prioritize the existing system is that three-quarters of voters rate the condition of the system as only fair (52%) or poor (26%). Only 23% think the MBTA is doing better now than when Governor Charlie Baker took office in 2015. Despite this, 65% approve of how Baker has managed transportation as governor, although only 11% strongly approve.
“Voters are not happy with the state of transportation in Massachusetts, but they’re not taking it out on Charlie Baker,” said Richard Parr, Senior Research Director at The MassINC Polling Group. “It will be interesting to see if the next governor inherits Baker’s suit of armor on this issue.”
Rating the gubernatorial candidates' transportation agendas.
Voters may want to fix the current infrastructure first, but they also support several major projects supported by one or both candidates running for governor. Most popular is extending passenger rail service to Western Massachusetts (80% support), an idea supported by both Democrat Maura Healey and Republican Geoff Diehl.
Voters also support several other ideas on Healey’s agenda: discounts and free bus transfers for low-income transit riders (79%), additional funding to run RTA buses on nights and weekends (78%), and transforming the Commuter Rail into a “regional rail” network with more frequent service (73%). Half (50%) of voters support making all public buses in the state completely free to ride.
Voters reject Geoff Diehl’s proposed repeal of new zoning requirements for towns that receive MBTA service. About a third of voters (32%) want to keep the policy in place, and about as many (31%) want to go further and require even more housing near MBTA stations.
The backdrop of all this policy is the persistence of remote work: 43% of workers surveyed are working from home at least a few days a week, and far more (68%) would prefer to do so if given the opportunity. Another factor is the transition to electric vehicles. Only 12% of car owners surveyed have an EV or hybrid, and a majority say they would have nowhere to charge an EV (44%) or are unsure if they would (17%). As of now, 40% say they are likely to use state or federal rebates to buy an EV in the next 5 years. A quarter (25%) say they are likely to use a new state rebate to buy an electric bicycle – more than double the share who report currently riding a bike regularly.
“To be sure, not every voter who expresses interest in an EV or ebike will end up buying one,” said Parr. “But even if some fraction does, that would represent the beginning of a real shift, and the next administration will have a major role in building out the charging infrastructure to support that.”
Maura Healey remains ahead in the governor’s race, while “yes” on Questions 1 and 4 hold onto leads.
In terms of who will be the next governor to tackle these issues, Healey leads Diehl 53% to 23%, with 18% percent undecided. This 30-point margin is similar to what previous general election polls have shown, suggesting Diehl has not made up ground as mail voting begins. Maura Healey (44%) is well-liked among those who have heard of her, while Geoff Diehl struggles with name recognition – only 43% of voters have either a favorable or unfavorable view of him.
Just under half of likely voters have a favorable view of President Joe Biden (49%), a very low rating for a Democratic President in one of the bluest states in the nation. Meanwhile, outgoing Republican Governor Charlie Baker leaves office with a 67% favorable rating.
Voters will also be settling two ballot questions with an impact on transportation. Question 1 would create a 4% surtax on income over 1 million dollars dedicated to transportation and education. As it stands, 59% of voters plan to vote “yes” to create the surtax, 31% no, and 10% remain undecided.
Question 4 asks voters whether they approve of a new law allowing residents without proof of legal status to obtain driver’s licenses. “Yes” leads here, but only narrowly (49%-37%), and just below the crucial 50% line.
If Question 1 fails to pass, the next governor may have a hard time rallying support for other funding sources for their transportation agenda. When asked how changes to transportation should be paid for, 26% said the T should make do with the money it currently has. Some 17% favored Question 1 or some other version of taxing the wealthy or corporations. Less than 10% supported raising broad-based taxes (9%), transit fares (7%), or road user fees like tolls, parking, or the gas tax (6%).
Voters think the MBTA shutdown was worth it, support more local control – and local contributions to the T’s budget.
Last month’s shutdown of the Orange Line (and part of the Green Line) continues to loom large in state politics, with Senators Warren and Markey holding a hearing on the T last week. For their part, 59% of voters think that the shutdown was worth the inconvenience to riders. Even among the 29% of those who said their own travel was impacted by the shutdowns, 55% think the shutdown was worth it. Going forward, 59% think the T should employ similar shutdowns to expedite repairs.
But voters also want to see changes in the organization of the T. Pluralities think the next governor should replace both the senior leadership of the MBTA (47%) and the state Department of Transportation (44%), 18% and 22%, respectively, say they should stay in place. Majorities support giving Boston and other surrounding communities seats on the MBTA board (83%) – and asking these communities to contribute more to the T’s budget (62%). Voters living within Route 128, who would bear the brunt of an additional local contribution, also support the idea (64%).
About the poll
These results are based on a survey of 987 likely voters in the November Massachusetts statewide election. Responses were collected via online survey October 5-14, 2022. The data were targeted and weighted by race, age, gender, education, geography, and party identification to reflect known and estimated population parameters for likely voters in the upcoming election. The credibility interval for this survey is +/- 3.2 percentage points for the entire sample, including the design effect. This poll was sponsored by The Barr Foundation.