Episode 225: Ups and down ballot

8/18/2022 -- On this week's episode, the team breaks down a new MassINC Polling Group poll. The poll looks at upcoming policy questions like the Fair Share Amendment, as well as what the numbers look like for the upcoming democratic primary.

Then Jenn talks to Yawu Miller of the Bay State Banner, and Marco Cartolano of the Worcester Telegram and Gazette about the domino effect of elected officials running for new seats.

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Full episode transcript:

Jennifer Smith: [00:00:25] This week on The Horse Race, we're looking at the results of a new poll by the MassINC Polling Group. Then we'll check in on how those electoral dominoes are falling. It's Thursday, August 18th. [00:00:34][9.4]

Steve Koczela: [00:01:23] Welcome back to The Horse Race, your weekly look at politics, policy and elections in Massachusetts. I'm Steve Koczela here with Jennifer Smith and a very tired looking Lisa Kashinsky. Lisa, a weary traveler, you have been all over New England in the last 24 hours. Why? [00:01:37][13.7]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:01:39] Well, former Vice President Mike Pence was in New Hampshire for politics and eggs, which as many of you listening probably know, is the all but required stop for potential presidential hopefuls. People with presidential ambitions. You know, of course, Mike Pence is one of several people who may or may not be running in 2020 for Trump or not Trump dependent. Put all of your qualifiers and grains of salt and everything that you will into that. But he was back in the Granite State, and those of us who follow national politics were back in the Granite State with him. [00:02:14][34.9]

Jennifer Smith: [00:02:15] Well, I mean, these things can always be sort of a mixed bag. Sometimes it's an hour of them saying absolutely nothing newsworthy and sometimes a bomb gets thrown right in the middle of it. Lisa, was there anything interesting to come out of Mike Pence's speech? [00:02:30][15.0]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:02:31] Not in the middle, but towards the end, as you alluded to correctly, he said that he would consider an invitation to testify before the January 6th Select Committee in Congress. And that, to those of us who maybe don't follow that day to day, is just like, oh, okay, sure, maybe he'll testify. But that was like a big deal to those in D.C. and beyond who are watching this. Lots of news alerts were going off about that. And Pence also called on Republicans to basically stop going after rank and file FBI members after the Mar-A-Lago search where they seized those classified documents from President Trump's estate in Florida, which is interesting and newsworthy given, you know, his kind of complicated and now chilly relationship with his former boss. You know, that was something that we saw a lot in New Hampshire of him trying to kind of toe that line and, you know, make the joke of, oh, while, you know, you know, we have our differences, but here's all the things we accomplished together. There's kind of a big condemning of the attacks on the FBI after this search. That was also interesting news to come out of this. [00:03:43][71.5]

Steve Koczela: [00:03:43] That one feels like it could apply to so many things, you know, and we've seen it a lot in the January six Commission testimony where someone says, you know what, it looks like this election was legitimate. And then basically the fire is directed at them and they just get roasted. It doesn't matter who they are, they could be a low level nobody election worker. They could be a law enforcement person. They could be an elected official who has been a lifelong Republican. But you step out of line and you just get crushed. And that, I think, is, you know, unfortunately, it's the FBI this week. But it's it's whoever you know Trump and sort of Trumpkins direct their fire at you know we saw it also in Wyoming of course last night was the big primary where Liz Cheney, the Republican who served on the January six commission and been a very sharp Trump critic as of late, but lost by a lot. So I think it's all kind of part of that same thing. [00:04:34][50.7]

Jennifer Smith: [00:04:35] And one of the things that we always, I think, struggle with sometimes in Massachusetts, but kind of nationally as well as we've talked about before, you know, none of us here are native Massachusetts residents. So it means that most of us end up bringing our experience from other states in as well. And one of the big national divides is basically, well, what do you do in a situation where all of the traditional signifiers of why someone would be a Republican or what makes a kind of traditional conservative are now not the deciding factor. Liz Cheney has, of course, been a really interesting example of it, where she voted with the Trump administration the vast majority of the time. And now everything is sort of turned into the pivot point of, okay, but how do you feel about the legitimacy of the election? So interesting, I guess, that that Mike Pence says he is willing to testify. He could have said it in Massachusetts as opposed to just near Massachusetts. And then Lisa would have had a bit more sleep. But I guess thank you so much for the update about the politics of our near neighbor. [00:05:41][66.0]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:05:42] Look, 2024 is only however many days the midterms are away. So we got to get used to going up to New Hampshire again. [00:05:49][7.4]

Steve Koczela: [00:05:50] And we got to get used to seeing ads again. We get that. I have to say it because it's coming around again. We get the worst of presidential campaigns. Everybody comes here, gets money from here, spends money on ads which play here. But then our votes don't matter for anything. They're really just targeting the people in New Hampshire. And I, for one, resent Steve. [00:06:10][20.3]

Jennifer Smith: [00:06:11] Is about to hit the point where he's like, I will pay you to stop showing me ads. [00:06:15][4.4]

Steve Koczela: [00:06:17] Yes, yes, I will. Or move our primary data. [00:06:20][2.8]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:06:20] Well, there's always that. But see, you call this the worst of everything. And I'm like, Hey, look, I can see what's going on in New Hampshire without having to leave my couch. [00:06:27][7.1]

Steve Koczela: [00:06:28] But we don't ultimately get to do anything about it. That's the part that's irritating. Like it is good in the sense that we get kind of a front row seat in a lot of ways, but we're not on the stage. You know. [00:06:37][8.8]

Jennifer Smith: [00:06:37] We get to be rubbernecking. [00:06:38][0.3]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:06:45] Can argue the merits of being the neighbor to the first in the nation primary state all day. Couldn't we? [00:06:49][4.4]

Jennifer Smith: [00:06:49] I will take that to imply that we might want to pivot over closer to our home base in Massachusetts, because we have been covering a few. I don't know if you've heard about there are a few statewide races happening here. And one that we did promise we would give you an update on last week is the state auditor race, one of many pretty competitive primaries. Lisa, what is the latest? [00:07:12][22.3]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:07:13] Yeah, this race is really turning into an endorsement battle. There is, you know, some polling that will get into a little bit later. Right. [00:07:20][7.3]

Steve Koczela: [00:07:22] There's polling? [00:07:22][0.3]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:07:23] Shocker, shocker polling. I'm so excited about it! That you know, it kind of shows that these candidates are kind of neck and neck with a huge number of undecideds. I won't spoil everything, but that means that endorsements can play a role in this for two candidates who aren't as well known to the electorate and, you know, are both calling to change and audit things, different things, but in similar ways. So basically, you have a lot of progressives who are coalescing around Chris Dempsey. You had Boston Mayor Michelle Wu come out for him last week. She's just kind of the latest in this string that also includes the auditor, as we've mentioned before, Suzanne Bump. But then on the other side of that, you have Congressman Steve Lynch who is in for Diana DiZoglio. So now it's just very interesting to see how people are lining up in this race. A lot of progressive groups behind Chris Dempsey, a lot of unions behind Diana DiZoglio. You've probably seen her face on the IBW 103 Billboard over 93. So that's interesting. And for people who maybe aren't as in-tune with the down ballot as down with the race down the ballot, I'm going to pretend that I said that correctly. Endorsements could be a key indicator for that. One of where people might want to vote. [00:08:38][75.0]

Steve Koczela: [00:08:39] And they may come in handy because as we'll talk about in a second, I think everybody who's heard of either candidate has actually endorsed already. It's it's the numbers are pretty low. We'll get that as a teaser. But that brings us to the question, which we've asked millions of times over centuries during this podcast and have yet to provide a satisfactory response, which is why are we here today? [00:08:58][19.0]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:08:59] While we are, as we've hinted at, running through this brand new shiny MassINC Polling Group poll released this week. And then Jenn is going to chat about state Senate elections with Marco Catalano of the Worcester Telegram Gazette and Yawu Miller of the Bay State Banner. Shall we get into it? [00:09:16][16.6]

Steve Koczela: [00:09:16] Let's ride. [00:09:17][0.3]

Jennifer Smith: [00:09:17] Let's go. The MassINC Polling Group released a new poll this week looking at both electoral issues and also policy items. Our very own Steve Koczela is here to help us break this down. Steve, thank you so much for taking time out of your non-polling related life to talk to us about polling. And I do I have that broke. [00:09:43][25.7]

Steve Koczela: [00:09:44] I am so glad to be here, Jenn. Thanks for having me on the podcast. [00:09:47][2.2]

Jennifer Smith: [00:09:48] Steve. What did this poll cover? [00:09:50][1.6]

Steve Koczela: [00:09:51] So this poll looked at things from a few different angles. It looked at mostly primary issues. So we looked at all the Democratic candidates for statewide office that are contested at this point. And then we also looked at fair share in the general election, and then various issues like how people are feeling economically and how they feel about a few different policy proposals that either are or may be on Beacon Hill sometime soon. [00:10:13][22.2]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:10:14] Well, and one of the big things that everyone kind of wants to know is one of the ballot questions this fall, the Fair Share Amendment or the so-called millionaire's tax for shorthand of what it is. What did you find on that? [00:10:27][12.9]

Steve Koczela: [00:10:27] Yeah, this is one that's pretty interesting and I think is going to start drawing a lot of attention. And we're going to see just an absolute tidal wave of spending on both sides. But basically what we've seen for years is that about 70% or so said that they were in favor of the so-called Fair Share or millionaires tax amendment. Just as a reminder, this is the amendment which or the ballot question that would pass a constitutional amendment, which would add a 4% surcharge on to incomes of anybody who makes over $1,000,000 a year. So, you know, 70% of people supported it. But the last couple of polls that have been done, it's a pretty different picture now. So our poll found 57% support it. So it's still a majority, but definitely has moved, has tightened up. And it actually comes on the heels of a Suffolk University Boston Globe poll which found 56%. So just one point different. It basically shows there's a there's a big movement. And the question now, I think, is, does it continue? We're now at the point in the election cycle where pretty soon this is when people will start to pay attention to ballot questions. This is when people on both sides will be running ads and people start to make up their minds. And we often see really, really big movement at this point in the cycle. [00:11:39][72.0]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:11:40] One thing I'm wondering is because I see this question raised online is does the wording of the ballot question or the amendment or the way it's polled affect the numbers that you see? [00:11:51][10.8]

Steve Koczela: [00:11:52] I mean, the wording of almost any ballot question, if you actually try to read the entire thing is quite confusing and ponderous. And often, you know, even which side is yes and which side is know can be confusing. That's less of an issue here. Just the yes side versus the no side because yes passes it no doesn't do anything. And that's, you know, kind of the easiest one to understand. But certainly the longer the ballot question is, the more complicated the ballot question is, you know, the harder it can be for voters to be sure that they're expressing what they mean to express. What we found over the years and what people who have research that systematically have found is that if you try to adhere to what the ballot question actually says, so you're mirroring the experience that someone's going to have when they get into their polling place and are standing there reading it. That gives you the results that are the closest to what the actual outcome is going to be. But certainly there's plenty of time left between now and November for things to change very significantly. And the fact that they're shifting already, I think, is going to make a lot of people take notice. [00:12:54][62.0]

Jennifer Smith: [00:12:56] So this poll was actually narrower than one might expect in kind of a general primary poll. It was mostly focused on kind of economic questions, some of which might look familiar to a lot of listeners, including rent control. That's right. [00:13:08][12.8]

Steve Koczela: [00:13:09] That's right. We did. This poll was sponsored by a group called the Responsible Development Coalition. And we looked at a lot of issues around around unions. We looked at things like wage theft and some other issues. All of that's posted on our website at MassINCPolling.com. We also did look, Jenn, as you said, at the issue of rent control. And we tested two different wordings because we've done different wordings in the past. And we wanted to see if you just ask half of the people, one and half of the people at the other what happens. And we found that there can be pretty big differences in support depending on kind of how you actually frame the question. So the one that drew a higher level of support was when you just asked if it would be okay for the Massachusetts state legislature to implement rent control policies. That one was supported by more people than if you asked about allowing local governments to set limits on rent or rent increases for privately owned housing. So it just depends on how you describe it. But you can get pretty different levels of support, which again echoes things that we've seen in the past. That also kind of gets to the the general issue of like what's really making voters anxious about the economy these days. And the answer to that really is cost. You know, it's not as much jobs. People pretty much feel like there are enough jobs. And we see that there are really shortages of workers in a lot of places. But when you're looking at, for instance, the cost of housing, 60% say that state leaders should give a great deal of priority to that to that issue. 64% say the same for cost of living, 55% for inflation. You know, other ones that are up there are just wages not keeping up with costs, the cost of food. So it's cost cost cost cost cost much more so than it is jobs. [00:14:49][100.0]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:14:50] So what about the horse races? [00:14:51][1.4]

Steve Koczela: [00:14:54] And then there was silence while we all stared at you disapprovingly. What about the horse races? That's the name of our podcast Lisa. What a good way to ask the question. No, seriously. The horse races. We did questions about the race for lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state and state auditor, starting with auditor, because we touched on that in the introduction. By far, the leader in the state auditor's race is don't know, refused. Undecided. 66%. Two thirds of voters say they really don't know who they're going to vote for yet at this point in that contest. That's among likely voters in the Democratic primary. And then that, you know, that kind of matches up with when you just ask, do you know who these people are? Do you have a favorable view of them or unfavorable? For Chris Dempsey, 7%, a whopping 7% have a favorable view, 3% unfavorable. And for Diana DiZoglio, the other candidate, the numbers are 12% and 5%. So we're not looking at candidates where you've got very, you know, sort of very well-known candidates on either side, scanning through the other races. The other one where you've got mostly unknown candidates as lieutenant governor there, you've got 62% who say that they're undecided. And looking at the others, Salem Mayor Kim Driscoll with I'd say a nominal lead at 15%. But really absolutely anything could happen in either race and but not contradict what this poll says about either one of those races. [00:16:18][83.9]

Jennifer Smith: [00:16:19] But we do actually have a bit of movement when it comes to the attorney general's race, don't we? [00:16:23][4.0]

Steve Koczela: [00:16:24] Yes, we do. And that one we've seen, Shannon Liss-Riordan close the gap a little bit with Andrea Campbell to where we now have Andrea Campbell with just an eight point lead, which is down considerably from where we saw things in the past. There we have both Campbell and Shannon Liss-Riordan more well-known then than they have been in the past. The other candidate Quentin Palfrey currently drawing 4% support in this poll. But looking at name ID, we still have you know, most voters don't have an opinion of them, but a few more do then than when you compare it to some of the really just who knows races that are even further down the ballot. So favorable percent, we have 28% for Campbell, 23% for Shannon Liss-Riordan and 9% for Quentin Palfrey in terms of just the percentage view them favorably. [00:17:09][44.8]

Jennifer Smith: [00:17:11] So Lisa, now what are you thinking in terms of this next month, in terms of ad buys? What have you been watching when it comes to not just the kind of ongoing development of a brand recognition throughout an entire campaign, but also just it's D-Day. Everyone everyone is everyone is buying up as much ad space as they can. And so it means everyone's in a fight over PACs now. [00:17:36][24.9]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:17:37] Yeah, there have been a lot of ads that I've gotten to write about in Playbook this week. And it's curious, too, with the Shannon Liss-Riordan movement, you know, in this poll, you have to wonder if that is a bit because she's been up on the airwaves since the beginning of July, I believe has poured millions of dollars behind these ads, is now on her third. You know, that was what she was hoping is that those would move the needle for her. And maybe this is the first indication, at least in public polling that it has. But, yeah, we're less than three weeks until primary day now. And yeah, these candidates need to get people to know them. And as people are starting to come back from their summer vacations, you know, TV and of course, these TV ads also now include streaming and things like that. So anywhere that you're watching things on a screen, these candidates are trying to get to you. You are seeing the super PACs now, like the one for Kim Driscoll start to put up ads as well, basically, given how people just still don't know these candidates after all these months, this is how they are going to try and reach people. And they're running out of time because voting's already started. [00:18:46][68.8]

Steve Koczela: [00:18:47] Yeah, definitely. Voting's already started. The good news for the candidates that that this poll finds behind or that aren't as well known is that this is the time when voters, to the extent they ever do, learn about candidates who are less well-known, and most candidates do choose somebody, even if they don't necessarily know a whole ton about the candidate. So that's why you see you see mailers, advertisements, endorsements, all of these things are cues to voters who may not have it and have a great sense of who the candidates are about who might be aligned with them in the end. [00:19:16][29.0]

Jennifer Smith: [00:19:17] And looking at the polls, I think the last thing to note, one is, as we've talked about in the past, we've got a one person Democratic governor race. So probably shouldn't be shocked that most people are going to vote for Healey or saying that they're going to vote for Healey. But there is a really big gap in the secretary of state's race. [00:19:36][18.6]

Steve Koczela: [00:19:37] Yeah, this is one where in the past, in 2018, when Galvin was running back then against Josh Zakim, we also found that people knew a lot about him or said that they knew who he was and by and large liked him. And we see that here, too. So Secretary of State Bill Galvin is the second best known and second best liked candidate for any statewide office behind only Maura Healey. Galvin has 52% favorables and only 6% view him unfavorably. His opponent, Tanisha Sullivan, is much less well known at just 11% who say that they have a favorable view of her. So definitely a big gap there in terms of name recognition. And that shows up then in the vote margin where Bill Galvin, when this poll was taken and a very carefully inserting that caveat in a very careful tone of voice so that we can replay it when people come to trash me if this turns out differently. Tanisha Sullivan, currently a 15% to Galvin's 43%. There's still three weeks to go. This is when people make their minds up. Anything could happen. And then we pause for effect. [00:20:37][59.6]

Jennifer Smith: [00:20:38] All right. Well, Master of Polls, Steve Koczela, thank you so much for taking time out of your busy life to talk about one of your own polls. [00:20:46][8.4]

Steve Koczela: [00:20:47] Always glad to do it. [00:20:48][0.7]

Jennifer Smith: [00:20:51] State Senator Sonia Chang-Diaz, who just mounted an unsuccessful bid for governor, will soon be vacating the second Suffolk seat in a year of uncontested races, pretty much across the board. This one is actually bustling, with four Democrats vying to replace her and setting off a chain of open races down the ballot. Here to walk us through it all is Yawu Miller of the Bay State Banner. Welcome back to The Horse Race, Yawu. [00:21:14][22.5]

Yawu Miller: [00:21:14] Thanks, Jenn. [00:21:15][0.3]

Jennifer Smith: [00:21:16] So let's start at the top. We've talked before about the second Suffolk domino effect. So who are voters going to see on their ballots to replace Chang-Diaz? [00:21:23][7.2]

Yawu Miller: [00:21:25] It will be Liz Miranda, Nika Elugardo, Minniard Culpepper and Diane Wilkerson, who held the seat previously. [00:21:32][7.1]

Jennifer Smith: [00:21:34] So Nika Elgardo and Liz Miranda are two sitting state reps right now. So they are basically running to move kind of up the ballot. Diane Wilkerson, as you mentioned, has held the seat before. So kind of walk us through what sets these candidates apart. How are they pitching themselves to voters? [00:21:51][17.6]

Yawu Miller: [00:21:53] Nika is, you know, there's not. There's been some debates, but they don't have wildly different platforms or anything like that. They, I guess Nika and Liz have legislative records. They can point to, you know, some successes in the house. Minniard Culpepper was a regional administrator for HUD, and he's made a lot of his platform centered around housing policy, public housing. He has an idea to transfer ownership of Boston public housing units to the resident associations, as happened previously with the Bromley Heath/Mildred Healey Apartments. And then Diane Wilkerson, again, who had held the seat before, is, you know, going on her experience as the senator. She says she's the only one who's actually gotten the job done before. So, you know, it's really less about in my from my perspective, really less about what their platform or policy positions are and more about who can hit the most doors, who can reach the most voters. [00:23:09][75.9]

Jennifer Smith: [00:23:11] Yeah. And exactly to that point to the debates have been kind of interesting because they're in agreement on most policy proposals. But you had a really great run down in the banner recently about kind of the ground game here. They're all out there, they're all hitting doors. They're all basically trying to take slices of this same recently redrawn district here. So how is that change to the district lines impacted the candidates efforts? It's not, in fact, the same district that Wilkerson used to represent in in complete. [00:23:42][31.5]

Yawu Miller: [00:23:43] Right before Wilkerson was indicted, she ran against or Sonia Chang-Diaz challenged her. Sonia Chang-Diaz won virtually every majority white precinct in Wilkerson. When every majority people of color precinct so many of the precincts in the district were majority Latino or majority black workers in one. Pretty much all of those this time around the district is only 20% white, and it was redrawn, excluding all parts of the South and in much of Jamaica Plain, there's enough of Jamaica Plain so that Elugardo's residence is part of the district, ward 11, which is runs roughly between the the Orange Line tracks and Washington Street, is also part of the districts. That's, you know, a pretty good chunk of of JP, so it's more heavily people of color that one key difference and it goes all the way down into Hyde Park now so for all of the candidates, you know, none of them has, I would venture to say, has had a lot of experience campaigning in Hyde Park or Mattapan for that matter. So for all of them, it's new territory for for Elugardo who has represented mostly Jamaica Plain, you know, it's Liz Miranda and a district that was mostly Dorchester with some Roxbury in it, you know, and then Culpeper, who's never held office before. So for all of this, there's a there's a lot of unknown territory. And then every campaign or any campaign that serious has a number in mind like this is how many votes we need to voters. We need to identify our supporters to know that we're we're going to win in that race. It could be anywhere from I mean, I've heard estimates like 8000, 12,000, but nobody really knows because nobody knows how many voters are actually, you know, turn out for a Democratic primary day after Labor Day. There are contested races for attorney general. And you know what else, the secretary of state that could drive up turnout. But, you know, it's still anyone's guess. There are a lot of unknown variables. Nobody can nobody has confidence. Nobody's putting money on any one of these candidates. [00:26:01][137.4]

Jennifer Smith: [00:26:02] Well, exactly. To that point to you know Liz Miranda and you can go to are both leaving seats vacant behind them. So that's also brought out kind of a crowd of folks who are looking to to take those on. So in the fifth Suffolk, we have Christopher Worrell who, if the name sounds familiar, is the brother of the fairly recently elected but sitting district four councilor and then Danielson Tavares as well as familiar face Althea Garrison, who by technicality when Ayanna Pressley left the city council, did end up as an At-Large councilor, but also had been a state rep. So how are you looking at the race in the fifth Suffolk right now? [00:26:48][45.9]

Yawu Miller: [00:26:50] Althea has held office twice, and each time it's been a technicality. She does have a loyal following, but I think that Tavares and Wardell would have to work pretty hard to not, you know, for her to pass her. It would be a surprise. I should also mention that Roy Owens is a reverend with really colorful campaign literature. That genre of literature unto itself is waging a writing campaign. But putting him aside, I think that it's really between two warriors in Worrell. And, you know, it's hard hard to say. I mean, I will say in favor of Tavares that he's raised twice as much money as world has. And also the last two state reps elected, there have been Cape Verdean and he's Cape Verdean as well. If you speak Creole, I think that gives you a leg up in that district. Again, you know, those district lines have changed, though. There's more of Roxbury in that district now. It's moved to the west. So, you know, it's kind of a wildcard race. Tavares seems to have put more money and more resources into paid campaign staff, whereas where else has an army of relatives who are working on his behalf, including his brother? And he also just got an endorsement from Mayor Wu. So that's an interesting one to watch. Hard to call. [00:28:22][91.2]

Jennifer Smith: [00:28:23] And then you end up with 15th Suffolk, where there are four people running to replace Nika Elugardo. So is that feeling as as easy to kind of piece through? It seems like the fifth Suffolk is pretty much a two man race unless there's there's some kind of exciting change from from the Garrison front does fifteenth Suffolk feel like more of a toss up? [00:28:46][23.3]

Yawu Miller: [00:28:47] You know, I mean I so we in the reporting field sometimes will go by fundraising because it's an easy indicator. I mean, first of all, it's really easy to look up. It's it's somewhat of an indicator of how much of a campaign somebody has. So Sam Montano was it was an organizer for Jamaica Plain Neighborhood Development in D.C. Development Corporation and serves on the Jamaica Plain Neighborhood Council. She's raised $35,000, has volunteers, seems to have a good deal of support. And then Roxanne Longoria, who has worked for the city and has been on the NAACP of Boston, she's raised $22,000. Both of them are running traditional campaigns with volunteers and they're hitting doors. Then you have a Northeastern graduate student, Richard Fierro, and a Maryann Nelson, who's a lawyer who lives in Mission Hill. And Richard and Marianne have not raised significant amounts of money. And both Marianne and Richard are relying on friends to help knock doors. So I think some people are looking at that at the 50 something district, which is Jamaica Plain and Mission Hill as a two woman race. But, you know, it's none of these people have held office or run for office before. So you have the wildcard. [00:30:12][85.1]

Jennifer Smith: [00:30:14] Absolutely. And notably, of course, you know, we rarely do see a profound kind of Republican effort in these districts, and there isn't really one this time around. Are there any other local races on your radar? I'm thinking of the six Suffolk, in which Russell Holmes is facing a challenger for once in the primary. But is there anything else that you're kind of keeping your eyes peeled on. [00:30:38][24.1]

Yawu Miller: [00:30:38] Not just the state races and sort of how they're playing out locally? Is there anything more confusing than the lieutenant, the race for lieutenant governor seat where there are like a gazillion people and you keep running into the Puerto Rican Festival or Dominican parade and, you know, why are you here and who are you again? [00:30:56][17.7]

Jennifer Smith: [00:30:59] So are you implying that perhaps the lieutenant governor race will not be the draw out to bring people into the state primary in these local races? [00:31:07][8.0]

Yawu Miller: [00:31:08] Not in Boston, but Andrea Campbell, having represented Dorchester in the city council, should be able to draw on people as well as Tanisha Sullivan, who again is head is the of the Boston branch of the NAACP, has been very active, you know, throughout Boston when she's running for secretary of state. So I think both of those candidates should be able to draw on relationships to to draw out voters. Again, it's right after Labor Day, though. So something that might prove to be somewhat of an advantage for the incumbent secretary of State, William Galvin, who whose responsibilities to set that date. So we'll see. [00:31:53][44.5]

Jennifer Smith: [00:31:54] We will see. Well, Yawu Miller, thank you so much for coming on to run through our rapid fire primary rundown. [00:32:00][5.8]

Yawu Miller: [00:32:01] Thank you, Jennifer Smith. Always a pleasure. [00:32:02][1.4]

Jennifer Smith: [00:32:09] The first Worcester District State Senate seat is open and current Mayor Joseph Petty and Robyn Kennedy are vying for the post. If Mayor Petty is elected, Worcester could see a shift in the city council, but there are other implications down the line. Here to walk us through it is Marco Cartolano of the Worcester Telegram and Gazette. Welcome, Marco. [00:32:28][18.4]

Marco Cartolano: [00:32:29] Hello. Nice to be here. [00:32:30][1.0]

Jennifer Smith: [00:32:31] Of course. So set the stage for us in the seat. These candidates are running to succeed State Senator Harriette Chandler, also of Worcester. So what are voters say they want in the district and how have they felt about prior representation? [00:32:42][11.4]

Marco Cartolano: [00:32:44] Well, I think Harriette Chandler, obviously, she's been a state senator there for 20 years. She's the Senate president emeritus. So she's obviously a very experienced state senator. And she is someone who I think there's been the sense that it'd be a very tall ask to succeed her. I think a lot of people in Worcester and in the city, you hear a lot of issues on the increasingly high price of living. Worcester used to be sort of the more affordable alternative to a city like Boston, but that's changing with a lot of the development that's happened in the city over the past couple of years. I think you're seeing a lot of a desire for there to be a strong voice for central Massachusetts in that Senate seat. Some background is that in the past year or so there's been quite a lot of shifting in central Massachusetts leadership. Karyn Polito, lieutenant governor, is a Shrewsbury native and has been a very present person in our area. And for Worcester, our former city manager for eight years and a half years, Edward Augustus has just stepped down. And we are an acting city manager at this point and obviously we have Harry Chandler. So there's this concern of will there be someone on Beacon Hill to be that strong voice for our area, an area that I think a lot of people believe doesn't always get as much attention from the statehouse as the eastern mass Boston area. So and I think also the general cost of living that's we've seen increase has been an issue a lot of people are feeling in our city. [00:34:32][108.1]

Jennifer Smith: [00:34:33] Mm hmm. So how have the stakes of this race been set up? What's each candidate's pitch? [00:34:38][4.6]

Marco Cartolano: [00:34:39] So Joe Petty has been mayor since 2012. He is the currently longest serving mayor in Worcester history, was just reelected for a sixth term. He is someone who a lot of the city knows. He's very presence. And that's sort of a big pitch for representing a city that's a big part of the Senate district and also has been the mayor overseeing these series of economic developments and changes to Worcester that have been heavily pushed by the city. If you're around here, you'll hear the term Worcester Renaissance be used by a lot of promoters of the city to get a sense of the city kind of change its reputation. And it's seeing the population growth it has as well. And so he's running on a lot of that sort of record. Also in being a person who has been able to build consensus in city council and to run as a effective mayor is sort of been his strong pitch. Robyn Kennedy is a former executive at the YWCA of Central Massachusetts. She just stepped down to run full time. Also, she has a lot of experience in the state house herself. She was an intern for Representative McGovern, has worked as an aide in the state Senate, has worked for the offices of both Governor Deval Patrick and Lieutenant Governor Tim Murray. So she says she brings that sort of specific experience to that role. And she also is arguing that there needs to be a much like a very aggressive handling of a lot of the issues we face in the state from the need for child care, for example, and for the affordable housing crisis has been pushing for a much more ambitious response to that, sort of roughly trying to form a more progressive lane in the primary. It's not like the strongest sort of division, but roughly there is a sense that she might be in the more progressive lane of the primary, but that's basically sort of their pitch is for who they are as candidates. [00:37:03][144.2]

Jennifer Smith: [00:37:04] Right. And so what's the money game looking like right now? There's been a bit of dust. Up around pack spending, as there has been in, you know, races across the state right now. So who's kind of in the lead and why is there a bit of controversy around this? [00:37:17][13.1]

Marco Cartolano: [00:37:18] Well, Joe Petty has a significant cash lead right now. If you look at the donations on the Office of Campaign Finance and Political Finance, you'll see like a treasure trove of Worcester politicos, business people, developers, union support as well. And he's, like maintained this lead throughout. He came in with an advantage, obviously, as a mayor and with Candy as a first time candidate. That advantage has been consistent throughout the race. Robin Kennedy's contributions have a lot come from kind of that sort of nonprofit sphere. Some people on the more progressive side of the Massachusetts political scene. So that's sort of the big picture money game, as with the question of the pack. So Joe Petty's campaign filed a request for the Office of Campaign Political Finance to investigate this political PAC that has been backing Kennedy and have been putting money into supporting her, sending out mailers and such. They are a PAC that is funded by to wealthier people in Worcester County, to the more wealthy people, and have said that their mission has been to endorse progressive women. And so they say that there's evidence of sort of unethical collaboration between the campaign and the PAC, because there was a Instagram post from Kennedy's campaign announcing that the mailers from the PAC were going out. Something along the lines of, our mailers are out. Saying that that is a breach of collaboration between a campaign and a PAC and using the name of the infamous Citizens United Supreme Court case to kind of tie that into the idea of like dirty money entering the race. Kennedy's team has said that that was the mistake of a first time staffer, that they chose to not always have the most tenured political staff on their campaign, and that that was just a mistake, that this is the Petty campaign trying to put in like be very political and like to kind of do a bit of smearing on where Kennedy's campaign money is coming from. So and also, they said that there was a, quote, the PAC used in the mailer that they said seemed like it came from the Kennedy campaign, giving it to them. I think it bared out that if you had were able to look it up a little bit more, you could find that quote. So that might not have been the that might not have been as strong of a claim. But the main part of that was this idea that Kennedy had promoted the mailers on social media. [00:40:29][190.5]

Jennifer Smith: [00:40:30] Gotcha. And of course, there are implications for city governance structures. You know, what are the candidates is the mayor. You mentioned, of course, that the city of Worcester is kind of been in a state of flux around city leadership right now. So what happens if Petty wins this race? [00:40:47][17.5]

Marco Cartolano: [00:40:48] Well, it depends on what Petty chooses to do. If Petty were to win and she becomes state senator, as I think on the outset, a lot of people thought would be the case, given his name, that while he has the possibility to serve concurrently, as Lydia Edwards did for a few months, there is been more resistance to doing that from the State House recently. So while serving concurrently is possible, it's something that's not entirely discouraged. And Petty said he was working it out, but leaning towards vacating his seat. So for the implications for city council, if Petty were to decide to vacate that seat, Worcester's charter would have the vice chair of the City Council become the mayor and assume mayoral duties for the portion till the next election. There is no special election that will be held to become a mayor. The mayoral election is kind of decided in an interesting way. Everyone running for an at large council seat has to start whether or not they want to run for mayor. And the top vote getter of the ones that dot that they want to run for mayor becomes the mayor. And the second place at large council candidate who thoughts that they want to run for mayor becomes the vice chair. So a lot of times it's not even like the second getting or third or even At-Large council candidate that becomes vice chair. Just the person that the marks that they want to run for mayor that becomes vice chair and vice chair doesn't really have a great amount of responsibility. They oversee the city council or education board. If the mayor is not president or if the mayor wants to give a little speech, they'll do this awkward little tradeoff. So right now, the person that is vice chair is City Councilor Donna Florio. She is considered to be on the conservative spectrum of Worcester City councilor as possibly most conservative member of the Worcester City Council. Well, they're nonpartisan offices. There is a sense of who represents the more progressive side, who's in the middle and who is more conservative. And she would be the person who would become the mayor in the case of Patti, vacating that seat. Now, this has happened in Worcester before, when Tim Murray, who was mayor in 2006, was elected lieutenant governor and a female city councilor named Constantino. Lukes became mayor and was more conservative than Murray. And that would mean that we would have a mayor that is considerably more conservative than the one we had elected prior. Now, Worcester has a Plan B government, so the mayor doesn't have a great deal of executive authority. The city manager has a good portion of the executive authority in our system. But the mayor of Worcester oversees city council and the. All committee is a lot of the times the public face of Worcester and you know has. A lot of political influence from that position. So while it won't be a change in how executive authority is greatly used, it's still going to be a considerable shifting in the role of mayor in the council. And in order to fill a vacancy for at large city councilor, the seventh place finisher will become an at large city councilor in the case that that seventh place finisher wants to take it. And that would be the former city councilor who ran for at large for the first time named Matthew Wiley while he was kind of in the middle on the political spectrum. And so that would be the new person if Petty were to vacate that seat. And while we were test, don't want to be a city councilor. What's the most relevant context of that is in 2021, two of the more progressive city councilors were elected for the first time, and they were seen as sort of a leftward turn in the city council and in the school committee in Worcester. I don't think it will be a dramatic shift to the right. It is notable that there was sort of a leftward turn in city politics in 2021 and maybe a slightly more conservative or moderate councilors will have these new positions. [00:45:42][294.5]

Jennifer Smith: [00:45:44] Great. And there is going to be a debate coming up on the 22nd between the candidates. So we will all keep an eye out for that. But until then, Marco Cartolano of the Worcester Telegram and Gazette, thank you so much for coming on the horse race. [00:45:56][12.1]

Marco Cartolano: [00:45:56] Thank you. [00:45:57][0.3]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:46:00] And now for our grand finale. Crudités, you might be wondering why on earth are you bringing up this strange word that most people know as a veggie tray? Well, that is because of Pennsylvania politics. [00:46:13][13.0]

Jennifer Smith: [00:46:14] Yes, we do offer you here, our beloved listeners, a look behind the curtain of what we talk about normally when we stop recording. But sometimes we forget to turn the recording device off. And you catch Steve Koczela explaining the recent Twitter kerfuffle over the Pennsylvania Senate election. Here it is. [00:46:34][20.0]

Steve Koczela: [00:46:36] I feel disappointed in myself for being informed about this. [00:46:38][2.3]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:46:39] It's a veggie tray. [00:46:40][1.1]

Jennifer Smith: [00:46:40] Tell us about it, Steve. [00:46:41][1.1]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:46:42] There's a name for Steve. [00:46:43][1.6]

Jennifer Smith: [00:46:44] Steve, just. Just give us the download. Why is there crudité content? [00:46:47][2.7]

Steve Koczela: [00:46:48] Here is the download. So typically, as you well know, crudité is the snooty term that restaurants use to refer to just a bunch of raw vegetables. Dr. Oz from the video of himself in a grocery store for his Pennsylvania Senate campaign, where he said, My wife sent me to the store to buy things for a crudité, is what he said for a crudité, which. [00:47:06][18.4]

Jennifer Smith: [00:47:07] One raw carrot. [00:47:08][0.5]

Steve Koczela: [00:47:09] And he proceeds to pick up like a whole bag of carrots, a bunch of asparagus, some pre-made guacamole and pre-made salsa, and a head of broccoli complaining the whole way about how expensive all this different stuff is. And also misnamed the store that he was supposedly in, which is apparently a beloved Pennsylvania chain. So instantly, of course, a Twitter handle with that story name popped into existence. You know, your crudités since 1872, that kind of thing. [00:47:37][27.9]

Lisa Kashinsky: [00:47:38] Well, I can't wait for our next segment on that, but that's all the time we have for today. I'm Lisa Kashinsky, signing off with Steve Koczela and Jennifer Smith. Our producer is Elena Eberwein. Don't forget to give The Horse Race a review wherever you're hearing us now. Subscribe to my Massachusetts Politico playbook and reach out to the MassINC Polling Group for polls. Please do that because I love to see polls. Thank you all for listening and we'll see you all next week. [00:47:38][0.0]

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