Q3 Trend Monitor: Markey edges Brown in 2014 matchup; consumer confidence slips

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Below are highlights from The MassINC Polling Group’s quarterly poll, released today.

Markey edges Brown in 2014 matchup

Scott Brown would face a tough uphill climb to reclaim a Senate seat in 2014, according to The MassINC Polling Group’s quarterly poll. If the 2014 Senate election were held now, 43 percent of registered voters would favor Markey, compared to 38 percent for Brown. This is a reversal from a December 2012 poll when Brown led Markey by 18 points. For full analysis, see the attached Trend Monitor and Crosstabs.

Consumer confidence slips in third quarter

After hitting a near-record high in April, the index of consumer sentiment declined this quarter due mostly to darkening views of future conditions. Forty-one percent think we’ll have bad business conditions for the nation in the next 12 months, and 47 percent expect “periods of widespread unemployment or depression” nationwide over the next five years. Both represent increases of 10 percentage points since the last quarterly poll, conducted in April.

Obama favorable down, Kerry’s up

 President Barack Obama has seen a decline in the percentage who see him favorably, a dynamic which broadly reflects similar decreases shown in national polling. He is currently seen favorably by 56 percent of Bay State residents, down from 64 percent in October of 2012. John Kerry, on the other hand, has seen his favorable/unfavorable ratio improve from 50/33 in October of 2012 to 54/25 today.

About the Poll: The MassPulse Quarterly Poll is conducted quarterly among representative samples of approximately 500 Massachusetts residents age 18 and older.  The poll is conducted in English and Spanish among both cell phone and landline households.  This iteration of the survey was conducted from July 17-20 2013.  The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.4 percent.