WBUR Poll: Clinton Is Trouncing Trump In Mass.

Massachusetts is a very safe state for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, and Republican Gov. Charlie Baker remains quite popular with voters.

Those are among the findings of a new WBUR statewide poll (topline,crosstabs).

The survey shows Clinton with a 26-point lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump. In a four-way race, Clinton has the support of 54 percent of poll respondents, Trump has the backing of 28 percent, Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 9 percent, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is at 4 percent.

Read more on WBUR.


Analysis: Why Early Poll Numbers Are No Guarantee For Warren, Baker Reelections

Though the 2016 election is dominating the national news, here in Massachusetts there are no major statewide races on the ballot.

Fast forward to 2018, and both Gov. Charlie Baker and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren are expected to be running for reelection. They are a popular pair.

At this early moment, what are the prospects of a real contest for either office in the 2018 election? If very recent history is any guide, nobody should take anything for granted.

Baker has consistently held extremely high poll numbers on pretty much every measure since taking office. The new WBUR poll (topline, crosstabs) shows he still walks on water. Sixty-two percent of likely Massachusetts voters give him a favorable rating, compared to just 16 percent unfavorable. For the last few years, national polls comparing him to other governors have often found him one of the top two most popular governors in America.

Read more on WBUR.


Should Mass. Expand Charter Schools? A Look At Ballot Question 2


Question 2 on the November ballot will ask voters if they support giving Massachusetts the authority to lift the cap on charter schools. As it stands, no more than 120 charter schools are allowed to operate in the state; there are currently 78 active charters.

A “Yes” vote on Question 2 would give the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education the authority to lift the cap, allowing up to 12 new charter schools or expansions of existing charters each year.

Priority would be given to charters that open in lower-performing districts. New charters and charter expansions approved under this law would be exempt from existing limits on the number of charter schools, the number of students enrolled in them and the amount of local school districts’ spending allocated to them.

A “No” vote would leave the cap as it stands today. If passed, the proposed law would take effect Jan. 1, 2017.

In a WBUR poll of likely voters, 48 percent said they would vote against lifting the cap, while 41 percent would vote for it, and 11 percent said they did not know or were undecided. The same poll found that 46 percent think charters drain money from district schools, 38 percent don’t think so, and 15 percent are undecided.

Read more on WBUR.


WBUR Poll: Mass. Voters Oppose Charter School Expansion, And Back Legal Weed

Likely voters oppose a ballot initiative to expand the number of charter schools in Massachusetts.

That’s the finding of a new WBUR poll (topline, crosstabs) on the four statewide questions on the ballot this November.

The survey, conducted Sept. 7-10 by The MassINC Polling Group, finds opponents of the measure to expand charter schools outnumber supporters of the measure, 48 percent to 41 percent. Eleven percent of respondents said they don’t know, or are undecided.

Read more on WBUR.


Analysis: Gary Johnson’s ‘Aleppo’ Stumble Hurts His Debate Chances

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are both preparing for the first presidential debate. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson may not make the stage at all.

The last time we saw three candidates on a general election debate stage was 1992. Ross Perot was up there with President George H.W. Bush and challenger Bill Clinton. Perot proved a spirited challenger throughout the cycle, on his way to pulling nearly 19 percent of the vote.

Since then every general election debate has featured one Democrat and one Republican.

For a while, it looked like Johnson could end this streak. But with the first debate now just 17 days away, time has all but run out. To make the debates, candidates must have an average of 15 percent support in national telephone polls. The Commission on Presidential Debates has identified five specific polls and says they will use the most recent poll as of mid-September.

This means the polls that will be used are likely to hit the field in the next week or so. Johnson’s average support in similar polls right now is just 8.4 percent. His best performance in a telephone poll in recent weeks has been 12 percent, while most have him considerably lower than that.

Read more on WBUR.


Analysis: GOP Said It Needed More Minority Support. Trump Hasn’t Gotten It

Exit polls in the 2012 presidential election showed Republican Mitt Romney got just 6 percent of the African-American vote. John McCain’s numbers were about the same in 2008. The GOP nominees did a bit better among other racial and ethnic minority groups, but they still lost the overall minority vote by lopsided margins in both contests.

A GOP post-mortem following the 2012 election identified winning over minority voters as critical to future success. “Unless the RNC gets serious about tackling this problem,” the report read, “we will lose future elections.”

Read more on WBUR.


Analysis: Trump’s Bad Week Is Showing Up In The Polls

It’s been a pretty bad week for the Donald Trump campaign. The news cycle since last week’s Democratic convention has been relentlessly negative toward the Republican.

The list of conflicts and problems Trump has encountered in recent days is too long to recite. Much of what he’s facing are problems of his own making.

Now it’s starting to show up in the polls. A series of state and national pollsconducted over the last week show the depths of the troubles Trump is facing, with just three months to go in the campaign. State by state polling matters most, since it’s the Electoral College, rather than the national popular vote, that will determine who is our next president.

Read more on WBUR.


WBUR Poll: After Conventions, Clinton Up 15 Points Over Trump In New Hampshire

From WBUR:

According to a new WBUR poll of New Hampshire voters, Hillary Clinton is enjoying a dramatic post-convention bump and now leads Donald Trump by 15 points. Our poll also shows Democrat Maggie Hassan with a big advantage in her bid to unseat Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte.
“After all the hand-wringing about whether Bernie Sanders supporters would end up supporting Hillary Clinton, she’s now getting 86 percent of the Democratic vote,” explained Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, which conducted the WBUR survey. “Donald Trump, on the other hand, has slipped a bit among Republicans. He’s now getting a bit less than two-thirds of the Republican vote.”


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The poll received considerable media attention beyond WBUR, with mentions in the New York Times, the Huffington PostPolitico, the Boston Globe, MSNBC’s Morning Joe, and elsewhere.

This is MPG’s second poll of the New Hampshire general election. Our May poll showed both the presidential and senate races in virtual dead heats.